Small state, big agenda: Singapore prepares to steer Asean through crisis

Singapore’s ascension to the helm of ASEAN, coinciding with the bloc’s 60th anniversary, is being touted as an opportunity for the city-state to prove its mettle in managing Southeast Asia’s complex landscape. The global environment has become increasingly fractured, and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has warned that his country will have to endure this challenging environment for many years to come.

Wong’s call to deepen ASEAN integration to create a more effective single market is not new, but the context in which it is being made has changed. The region is grappling with multiple crises simultaneously: Myanmar’s civil war rages on, while South China Sea tensions simmer and an unresolved border row between Thailand and Cambodia continues to simmer. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s role as crisis leader will be put to the test.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, believes that no country is better equipped to handle the challenges facing ASEAN than Singapore. This suggests that Singapore’s brand of pragmatism and incremental progress will be on full display as it seeks to mediate between rival nations and address pressing issues like trade and security.

Singapore’s rise to prominence in ASEAN has been a gradual one, dating back to the 1960s when the country first joined the bloc. Since then, Singapore has consistently punched above its weight, leveraging its economic heft and diplomatic skills to build relationships with neighboring countries. This experience will be crucial as it navigates the complex web of alliances and rivalries within ASEAN.

Balancing competing interests within the region is one of the key challenges facing Singapore. Myanmar’s civil war has created a humanitarian crisis that threatens regional stability, while South China Sea tensions have drawn in major world powers like the United States and China. To avoid alienating any one country or group, Singapore will need to tread carefully.

In addition to navigating internal challenges, Singapore’s leadership of ASEAN is also about reassuring external partners that the region remains a stable and reliable partner for global trade and investment. Wong’s call to deepen integration within ASEAN is aimed in part at enhancing its credibility as a cohesive economic unit – one that can compete with other regional blocs like the European Union.

One challenge Singapore will face is addressing the Philippines’ recent reluctance to engage with ASEAN under its current leadership. The country’s decision not to join a joint statement with fellow ASEAN leaders at the 2020 ASEAN Summit was seen as a snub by many observers. Can Singapore coax the Philippines back into the fold, or will it have to navigate the bloc without one of its key members?

Singapore’s experience in crisis leadership is well-documented, from its handling of the SARS outbreak in 2003 to more recent challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and last year’s haze season. However, this time around, the stakes are higher – and so too are the expectations.

As Wong noted at his National Day Rally speech, “Our response cannot be to retreat and turn inward.” Instead, Singapore will have to lead by example, demonstrating that ASEAN can be a force for stability in an increasingly fractured world. Whether it succeeds or fails remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the eyes of the region – and the world – will be on Singapore as it takes the helm of ASEAN into uncharted waters.

Singapore’s leadership of ASEAN also speaks to broader patterns in international relations. As global politics becomes increasingly multipolar, regional organizations like ASEAN are being forced to adapt to new realities. In this sense, Singapore’s experience as crisis leader can offer valuable lessons for other regions and countries facing similar challenges.

The United States’ increasing distraction by domestic politics and global events has also led to a re-evaluation of relationships between major powers like China and the US. ASEAN member states are being forced to reassess their alliances with these powers, and Singapore’s leadership role will give it a unique perspective on this shifting landscape.

Ultimately, Singapore’s success or failure as crisis leader will be a test not just of its own capabilities but also of ASEAN’s relevance in an increasingly fragmented world. As the region navigates multiple crises simultaneously, one thing is clear: only time will tell if Singapore can indeed steer ASEAN through treacherous waters and emerge stronger on the other side.