Zelenskyy’s Election Predicament: A War-Time Conundrum

The recent call by Ukraine’s former Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, for a wartime presidential election has put President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a precarious position. With his five-year term set to end in May 2024 and the war with Russia ongoing, elections have been suspended due to martial law, raising questions about whether Ukraine can hold free and fair votes.

Historically, few countries have managed to conduct elections during wartime. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, notes that “it’s very unlikely for an election to happen in Ukraine.” The practical limitations of counting votes from occupied territories, combined with concerns about Russian interference and securing guarantees from Moscow, make holding elections a daunting task.

Sonin also points out that Zelenskyy has navigated Ukrainian politics with ease since his 2019 election victory. It’s unlikely that any challenger would successfully unseat him amid the ongoing war. “He would defeat any other candidate,” Sonin says bluntly. However, recent polling by SOCIS suggests that Zelenskyy might not fare as well in a hypothetical election against Fedorov and General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

This raises questions about the dynamics of Ukrainian politics and whether the war has altered the calculus of power. Last year, President Donald Trump attacked Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections.” However, Zelenskyy has consistently denied using the war to cling to power, saying he would be open to an election if it could be safely held.

The current impasse highlights the difficulties of balancing democratic governance with military necessity. With millions of Ukrainians displaced or living in occupied territories, the logistics of holding free and fair elections are severely compromised. The war has forced Ukraine’s leadership to prioritize short-term security over long-term institutional development.

As the conflict rages on, it’s essential to consider the implications for Ukrainian politics beyond this election cycle. If Zelenskyy were to lose or be forced out of office, his successor would face a similar predicament. Alternatively, they might capitalize on the momentum built during the war to consolidate power and implement reforms.

Ukraine’s electoral conundrum serves as a stark reminder that democratic governance can’t be taken for granted, especially in times of crisis. While Zelenskyy’s leadership has been widely praised, his willingness to address systemic issues plaguing Ukrainian politics remains uncertain. The war may have created opportunities for Ukraine to strengthen its institutions and solidify its commitment to democracy, but it also poses significant risks if not managed carefully.

In a situation where the stakes are so high, Zelenskyy must take concrete steps towards addressing the democratic deficits plaguing Ukraine. If he fails to do so, he may face more than just an election challenge – he might be confronted with a legitimacy crisis that threatens the foundations of Ukrainian democracy.